Research ideas

One problem I have is that I think up of too many interesting questions and things to do. Here are a few research ideas that I don't have time to really develop.

This is in addition to BoomCodeProjects and QuantLib projects.

• Extend methodology to look at other indicators of corruption in PRC investments

• Come up with a stochastic model for PRC interest rates

• Come up with a model for the behavior of the RMB
  • In particular use Rebanto's method of normal composition to decompose RMB

• Combine the above to have a model for PRC interest rate swaps

• Look for systematic changes in autocoorelation in Shanghai markets over time
  • The important thing is to look for an autocoorelation in the first phase of Shanghai/Shenzhen markets that aren't in the current set of market data

• Look for systematic changes in covariance between A/B/H/G shares over time

• Take the papers of Nicholas Lardy, which argues that the Chinese economy is dangerously overdependent on investment and the papers of the Goldman-Sachs research group, which argues that it isn't. Try to figure out what is going on. In particular, what are the consequences of certain policy choices if the data which underlies those choices in incorrect. Suppose we take Lardy's suggestions and the Chinese economy *isn't* overdependent on investment, what happens. Suppose we take Goldman-Sach's papers and the Chinese economy *is* overdependent on investment, what happens.
  • A lot of this depends on conflicting ideas over what chinese corporate profits are like. Goldman research says profits are booming. w:Nicholas Lardy says that the are not.

• Investigate the Chinese steel industry

• Research universities in the lower Yangtze valley in the 19th century
  • Some of this might involve looking at distributions of current Chinese scientists

• Why are finance people optimistic about the Chinese economy and management people negative. For the negative view, read Yasheng Huang's work

• Was capital intensity really increasing in the 1990's?

• A "one country, two constitutions" model for Mainland-Taiwan relations. This would be an elaboration of the "one country, different interpretations" principle and would involve creating a legal infrastructure in which both the 1947 ROC constitution and the 1982 PRC constitution are both considered valid.

• A "third lever" model of the Chinese economy.

• How to develop a "fund model" of Chinese state ownership

Other things I'm interested in

• National People's Congress legislative procedure