Archive:Earth-impact events

Is this artist's impression of the Chicxulub impact too sensationalistic?

What objects exist in space near the Earth? How often do they collide with our planet? What are the risks of such an impact? Is this something that we should be worried about? Have scientists and journalists done a good job of informing the public? Please read the infomation on this page and visit the links, and then join the /Discussion.

The science of Near-Earth objects

Near-Earth objects

Near-Earth objects (NEO) are asteroids, comets and large meteoroids whose orbits bring them close to Earth's orbit, and which may therefore pose a collision danger.

On October 7, 2008 a meteoroid called 2008 TC₃ which was 2 - 5 meters (7 - 16 ft) in diameter entered Earth's atmosphere and burned up before it reached the ground. The object had just been discovered about a day before the impact. It exploded tens of kilometers above the ground with the energy of around one kiloton of TNT, causing a large fireball in the early morning sky over northern Sudan.

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

Radar image of 4179 Toutatis

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) are Near-Earth asteroids that are big enough to cause unprecedented regional devastation if they were to hit the Earth.

On September 29, 2004 the asteroid 4179 Toutatis made a particularly close approach (within 4 LD, or lunar distances) from Earth. The next close approach is November 9, 2008, but it will be five times more distant. It is about 4.6 km by 2.4 km in size.

There is some concern that the asteroid 99942 Apophis could impact earth on April 13, 2036. The probability of a collision is currently esitmated to be 1 in 45,000. These calculations are uncertain due to another close encounter in 2029 which could modify the orbit of the asteroid, making a collision either more or less likely. It is about 210 - 330 meters in size.

The asteroid 2007 VK184 is currently estimated to have a probability of 1 in 3,030 of impacting Earth on June 3, 2048. This 130 meter object has the potential of releasing 150 megatons of energy if it were to collide.

Close-Approaches

The close approach of 99942 Apophis to the Earth and Moon on April 13, 2029 will alter the orbit of the asteroid.

NEO Earth Close-Approaches

Date	Object Name	Object size	Miss distance
2008-Oct-03	2008 TN9	9 - 19 m	0.6 LD
2008-Oct-09	2008 TS26	about 1 m	0.03 LD
2008-Oct-23	2008 TT26	49 m - 110 m	3.6 LD
2008-Oct-29	2005 VN	72 m - 160 m	4.1 LD

PHA Earth Close-Approaches

Date	Object Name	Object size	Miss distance
2009-Feb-18	1999 AQ10	240 m - 540 m	4.4 LD

See the NASA/JPL Near Earth Object Program for up-to-date information.

In fiction

• Fictional impact events
• Armageddon
• Deep Impact

In the news

Current

• Small Asteroid Predicted to Cause Brilliant Fireball over Northern Sudan - October 6, 2008
• Boulder-Size Asteroid to Be Fireball Over Earth Monday - October 6, 2008
• Impact of Asteroid 2008 TC3 Confirmed - October 7, 2008
• Incoming Asteroid Burned Up in Earth's Atmosphere Right on Time - October 8, 2008
• Little Asteroid Makes a Big Splash - October 9, 2008
• For first time, scientists predict arrival of asteroid - October 11, 2008
• Who's watching our skies? - October 12, 2008

Older news

• Near-Earth Asteroid 2007 TU24 to Pass Close to Earth on Jan. 29 - Should be Observable with Modest Sized Telescopes - January 22, 2008
• Asteroid to narrowly miss Earth - January 24, 2008

Commentary

• Asteroids ahead - don't panic - June 6, 1998
• Impact! - March 7, 2007
• The Sky Is Falling. Really. - March 16, 2007
• The Sky Is Falling - June 2008
• What 'Deep Impact' might an asteroid make on Earth, astronauts ask - September 25, 2008
• Will an asteroid destroy Earth? Time for U.N. to keep tabs, say experts - September 25, 2008
• Death by meteorite - October 13th, 2008

See also

• w:Near-Earth object
• w:Near-Earth asteroid
• w:Potentially hazardous asteroid
• w:Impact event
• Asteroid Surveys
• n:Asteroid to fly by Earth - January 24, 2008