Research ideas

Some research ideas.....

• Extend methodology to look at other indicators of corruption in PRC investments

• Come up with a stochastic model for PRC interest rates

• Come up with a model for the behavior of the RMB
  • In particular use Rebanto's method of normal composition to decompose RMB

• Combine the above to have a model for PRC interest rate swaps

• Look for systematic changes in autocoorelation in Shanghai markets over time
  • The important thing is to look for an autocoorelation in the first phase of Shanghai/Shenzhen markets that aren't in the current set of market data

• Look for systematic changes in covariance between A/B/H/G shares over time

• Take the papers of Nicholas Lardy, which argues that the Chinese economy is dangerously overdependent on investment and the papers of the Goldman-Sachs research group, which argues that it isn't. Try to figure out what is going on. In particular, what are the consequences of certain policy choices if the data which underlies those choices in incorrect. Suppose we take Lardy's suggestions and the Chinese economy *isn't* overdependent on investment, what happens. Suppose we take Goldman-Sach's papers and the Chinese economy *is* overdependent on investment, what happens.

• Investigate the Chinese steel industry

• Research universities in the lower Yangtze valley in the 19th century