Archive:MIT Energy Initiative Forum Notes
Notes from MIT Energy Initiative Forum Luncheon - 1/11/2007
Held with in conjunction with Petroleum Club on the 43rd floor of the Exxon Mobil headquarters with the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Intro to MIT Enterprise Forum. Founded in 1978 by MIT alumni. No restriction on membership.
President Hockfield set up energy as one of two priorities for MIT (the other was merging life and physical sciences).
Set up Energy Research Council - from all schools in MIT
ERC started Energy Initiative in 9/2006
Why it is complicate
- Few people interested in technical
- Most people interested in energy services
- US household 3-4% spend on energy services
- Energy Council - included two former US Undersecretaries of Energy
- Why MIT - MIT founded on using tech to benefit society, good at cross discipline, good at moving technology to industry, good at partnering with governments
Perfect storm
- Energy - supply and demand
- Energy and security
- Energy and the environment
World use of energy 450 EJ/years 14 Terawatts
Will double next century
1.4 billion no electricity next century
50 year time scale for change
Developing world. As GDP increases energy will increase but....
Efficiency is important. US uses more energy per GDP than Europe
It will make a big difference (10% of world energy usage) if China uses energy like US or Europe
It takes about 50 years to replace energy use. Because it is a *big* infrastructure..
Renewables 4% of energy use
Solar photovolatics 1 part per million now.
Need to start research now to change by mid century
Energy and security
- geopolitics
- oil and gas may not be enough - oil companies have 20 year estimates of supply. No one is willing to give 50 year estimates
- delivery systems are vulnerable
- nuclear has proliferation issues
- natural disasters
Oil and gas and security
Core issue: Demand is inelastic
What we can do - increase diversity of supply - weaken demand - efficient vehicles, coal and natural gas, hydrogen economy ???
Energy and environment
The scientific debate is no longer about whether man made climate change is happening. The question is how much CO2 levels will need to rise before some really catastrophic happens. Best guess is that CO2 can raise another factor of 2.
How do we decarbonize energy....
Average temperature of earth is rising. 19 or 20 warmest winters since 1980. It is almost the warmest it has been in the last million years.
Impact of climate change
- rising sea levelsre
- great ocean conveyor belt keeps C02 in ocean for 1000 years
what to do...
Efficiency
low carbon or carbon less and CO2 capture
difficult problem. Nukes not the only solution. We'd have to build one new nuclear plant *each day* to keep up with increase in energy demand
50 year time frame