Artificial Intelligence Cold War
Artificial Intelligence Cold War (AI Cold War) is a narrative in which tensions between the US and China lead to a second Cold War waged in the area of AI technology rather than in the areas of nuclear capabilities or ideology.[1] The context of the AI Cold War narrative is the AI arms race, which involves a build-up of military capabilities using AI technology by the US, Russia and China.
Origins of the term
The term AI Cold War first appeared in 2018 in an article in Wired by Nicholas Thompson and Ian Bremmer.[2] The two authors trace the emergence of the AI Cold War narrative to 2017, when China published its AI Development Plan, which included a strategy aimed at becoming the global leader in AI by 2030. While the authors acknowledge the use of AI by China to strengthen its authoritarian rule, they warn against the perils for the US of engaging in an AI Cold War strategy. Nicholas Thompson and Ian Bremmer rather advocate for a technological cooperation between the US and China to encourage global standards in privacy and ethical use of AI.
Shortly after the publication of the article in Wired magazine, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson referred to the emergence of an ‘Economic Iron Curtain’ between the US and China, reinforcing the new AI Cold War narrative.[3]
Proponents of the AI Cold War narrative
Politico contributed to reinforce the AI Cold War narrative. In 2020, the paper argued that because of the increasing AI capabilities of China, the US and other democratic countries have to create an alliance to stay ahead of China.[4]
The former CEO of Google Eric Schmidt together with Graham T. Allison alleged in an article in Project Syndicate that in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic the AI capabilities of China are ahead of the US in most critical areas.[5]
US politicians and European industry players have invoked the looming AI Cold War as a reason to ban procurement by public authorities in Europe of Huawei 5G technology due to concerns over the Chinese state-sponsored surveillance industry.[6][7]
Academics have pointed to concerns about unethical use of AI which would be primarily associated with China. Ethics would therefore constitute a major ideological divide in the upcoming AI Cold War.[8]
Shortcomings of the AI Cold War narrative
Concerns have been expressed by academics and observers about the validity and soundness of the AI Cold War narrative. Denise Garzia expressed concerned in Nature that the AI cold war narrative will undermine the efforts by the US to establish global rules for AI ethics.[9] Researchers have warned in MIT Technology Review that the breakdown in international collaboration in the area of science because of the threat of the alleged AI Cold war would be detrimental to progress.[10] Additionally, the Cold War narrative impacts on many more areas including the planning of supply chains and the proliferation of AI. The dissemination of the Cold War narrative could therefore be costly and destructive and exacerbate existing tensions.[10]
Joanna Bryson and Helena Malikova have pointed to Big Tech's potential interest in promoting the AI Cold War narrative, as they lobby for less onerous regulation of AI in the US and the EU . A factual assessment of the existing AI capabilities of different countries shows a less binary reality than portrayed by the AI Cold War narrative.[11] Regarding cyber power, the International Institute for Strategic Studies published a study in June 2021, which argued that the online capabilities of China have been exaggerated and that Chinese cyber power is at least a decade behind the US.[12]
References
- ↑ Champion, Marc (12 December 2019). "Digital Cold War". Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/how-u-s-china-tech-rivalry-looks-like-a-digital-cold-war.
- ↑ "The AI Cold War That Threatens Us All". WIRED. 23 October 2018. https://www.wired.com/story/ai-cold-war-china-could-doom-us-all/.
- ↑ Curran, Enda (7 November 2018). "Paulson Warns of ‘Economic Iron Curtain’ Between U.S., China". Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-07/paulson-warns-of-economic-iron-curtain-between-u-s-china.
- ↑ Heath, Ryan (16 October 2020). "Artificial Intelligence Cold War on the horizon". Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/artificial-intelligence-cold-war-on-the-horizon-429714.
- ↑ Schmidt, Eric; Allison, Graham (4 August 2020). "Is China Winning the AI Race?". Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-versus-america-ai-race-pandemic-by-eric-schmidt-and-graham-allison-2020-08.
- ↑ Meyer, David (23 November 2018). "U.S. Urges Other Countries to Shun Huawei, Citing Espionage Risk". Fortune. https://fortune.com/2018/11/23/us-huawei-espionage/.
- ↑ Doffman, Zak (22 December 2018). "As The AI Cold War Looms, Has Time Finally Been Called On China's Spy Industry?". Fortune. https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2018/12/22/as-the-ai-cold-war-looms-has-time-finally-been-called-on-chinas-spy-industry/.
- ↑ Template:Cite report
- ↑ Garzia, Denise (11 May 2021). "Stop the emerging AI cold war". Nature 593 (169). doi:. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01244-z. Retrieved on 1 July 2021.
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 Webster, Graham (19 December 2018). "The US and China aren’t in a "cold war," so stop calling it that /". MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/12/19/138211/the-us-and-china-arent-in-a-cold-war-so-stop-calling-it-that.
- ↑ Bryson, Joanna; Malikova, Helena (28 June 2021). "Is There an AI Cold War?". Global Perspectives University of California Press 2 (1). doi:. https://online.ucpress.edu/gp/article-abstract/2/1/24803/117647/Is-There-an-AI-Cold-War?. Retrieved on 3 July 2021.
- ↑ Warrell, Helen (28 June 2021). "China’s cyber power at least a decade behind the US, new study finds". The Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3350bce7-7f19-4a45-a749-79aa9b3b265e.