United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - predictions
Here are the predictions of the United States House of Representatives elections, 2010.
Overview
- Congressional Quarterly.
- Congressional Quarterly projects the Democrats will take 228 seats, the Republicans 178, and they consider 29 races too close to call.[1]
- Rothenberg Political Report.
- In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "... the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[2]
- Crystal Ball
- In a May 2009 column for his newsletter, Larry Sabato wrote "History instead suggests that the overall odds favor Republican gains in the House in 2010, but relatively modest gains. After all, Democrats now hold 257 House seats, 39 seats more than the minimum needed to control the House. Only Truman in 1946 and Clinton in 1994 yielded more than 39 seats to the opposition party in their first midterm election."[3]
- Charlie Cook
- In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[4]
- Nate Silver
- In an August 2009 prediction, he wrote that the Democrats would suffer a loss of between 20 to 50 seats in the 2010 House elections.[5] In another August prediction, Silver wrote "While the Democrats are not extraordinary likely to lose the House, such an outcome is certainly well within the realm of possibility (I'd put the chance at somewhere between 1-in-4 and 1-in-3)." [6] In September 2009, an article titled "Generic House Polling Suggests the Republicans Could Regain the House in 2010" was published on Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight.com.[7] By April 2010, Silver had wrote that "If Democrats were to lose 50, 60, 70 or even more House seats, it would not totally shock me" in an article on the blog titled, "Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats".[8]
Table
The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)
| District | Incumbent | Cook[9] | Rothenberg[10] | CQ Politics[11] | Crystal Ball[12] | RCP[13] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | Bright (D) | Lean D | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| AL-5 | (Griffith) (R) | Lean R | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R |
| AZ-1 | Kirkpatrick (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Likely D | Tossup | Leans D |
| AZ-3 | (Shadegg) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Lean D | Pure Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| AR-1 | (Berry) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans D | Tossup | Tossup |
| AR-2 | (Snyder) (D) | Lean R | R Favored | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| AR-4 | Ross (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| CA-3 | Lungren (R) | Lean R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R |
| CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| CA-18 | Cardoza (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D |
| CA-20 | Costa (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| CA-44 | Calvert (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| CA-45 | Bono Mack (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| CA-47 | Sanchez (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
| CO-3 | Salazar (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D |
| CO-4 | Markey (D) | Tossup | R Favored | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| CO-7 | Perlmutter (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Leans D |
| CT-4 | Himes (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D |
| CT-5 | C. Murphy (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| DE-AL | (Castle) (R) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| FL-2 | Boyd (D) | Lean D | Pure Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| FL-8 | Grayson (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| FL-12 | (Putnam) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R |
| FL-22 | Klein (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Leans D | Tossup |
| FL-24 | Kosmas (D) | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| FL-25 | (M. Diaz-Balart) (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R |
| GA-2 | S. Bishop (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Likely D | Leans D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| GA-12 | Barrow (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
| HI-1 | Djou (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D |
| ID-1 | Minnick (D) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup | Leans D |
| IL-8 | Bean (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D |
| IL-10 | (Kirk) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| IL-11 | Halvorson (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilt D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans R |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Leans D |
| IL-17 | Hare (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| IN-2 | Donnelly (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D |
| IN-8 | (Ellsworth) (D) | Lean R | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| IN-9 | Hill (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans D | Tossup | Tossup |
| IA-1 | Braley (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| IA-3 | Boswell (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| KS-3 | (Moore) (D) | Lean R | Leans R | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| KS-4 | (Tiahrt) (R) | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R |
| KY-3 | Yarmuth (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
| KY-6 | Chandler (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D |
| LA-2 | Cao (R) | Tossup | D Favored | Likely D | Leans D | Likely D |
| LA-3 | (Melancon) (D) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R |
| ME-1 | Pingree (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| MD-1 | Kratovil (D) | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| MA-6 | Tierney (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| MA-10 | (Delahunt) (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| MI-1 | (Stupak) (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| MI-3 | (Ehlers) (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| MI-7 | Schauer (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| MI-9 | Peters (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D |
| MN-1 | Walz (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| MN-6 | Bachmann (R) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| MS-1 | Childers (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| MS-4 | Taylor (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| MO-3 | Carnahan (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| MO-4 | Skelton (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NE-2 | Terry (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| NV-3 | Titus (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| NH-2 | (Hodes) (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| NJ-3 | Adler (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| NJ-12 | Holt (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Leans D |
| NM-1 | Heinrich (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NM-2 | Teague (D) | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| NM-3 | Luján (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| NY-1 | T. Bishop (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NY-13 | McMahon (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NY-19 | Hall (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilt D | Leans D | Likely D | Tossup |
| NY-20 | S. Murphy (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D |
| NY-23 | Owens (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| NY-25 | Maffei (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| NY-29 | (Open) | Lean R | R Favored | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| NC-2 | Etheridge (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D |
| NC-7 | McIntyre (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| NC-8 | Kissell (D) | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup | Leans R |
| NC-11 | Shuler (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| ND-AL | Pomeroy (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| OH-1 | Driehaus (D) | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| OH-6 | Wilson (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| OH-12 | Tiberi (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| OH-13 | Sutton (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup |
| OH-15 | Kilroy (D) | Tossup | Leans R | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| OH-16 | Boccieri (D) | Lean D | Pure Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Leans R |
| OH-18 | Space (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| OK-2 | Boren (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| OR-1 | Wu (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| OR-5 | Schrader (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| PA-3 | Dahlkemper (D) | Tossup | Pure tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| PA-6 | Gerlach (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R |
| PA-7 | (Sestak) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| PA-8 | P. Murphy (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Tossup | Tossup |
| PA-10 | Carney (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Leans D | Tossup | Leans R |
| PA-12 | Critz (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| PA-15 | Dent (R) | Lean R | R Favored | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| PA-17 | Holden (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| RI-1 | (Kennedy) (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| SC-5 | Spratt (D) | Tossup | Pure tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| SD-AL | Herseth Sandlin (D) | Lean D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D | Tossup | Leans R |
| TN-4 | Davis (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D |
| TN-6 | (Gordon) (D) | Likely R | R Favored | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R |
| TN-8 | (Tanner) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Leans R | Leans R |
| TX-17 | Edwards (D) | Tossup | Pure tossup | Leans D | Tossup | Leans R |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| TX-27 | Ortiz (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| UT-2 | Matheson (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| VA-2 | Nye (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| VA-5 | Perriello (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Tossup | Tossup | Leans R |
| VA-9 | Boucher (D) | Lean D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Tossup |
| VA-11 | Connolly (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Likely D | Leans D | Tossup |
| WA-2 | Larsen (D) | Likely D | D Favored | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| WA-3 | (Baird) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R |
| WA-9 | Smith (D) | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| WV-1 | (Mollohan) (D) | Tossup | Pure tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| WV-3 | Rahall (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Leans D |
| WI-3 | Kind (D) | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D |
| WI-7 | (Obey) (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt D | Leans D | Tossup | Tossup |
| WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Lean D | D Favored | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D |
References
- ↑ "CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010". Innovation.cqpolitics.com. http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr. Retrieved on 2010-07-11.
- ↑ Rothenberg, The (2010-04-14). "The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/04/new-print-edition-house-overview.html. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood, and Paul Wiley (2009-05-14). "HOT HOUSE 2010, Crystal Ball, U.Va". Centerforpolitics.org. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2009051401. Retrieved on 2009-07-28.
- ↑ Monday, February 22, 2010 (2010-02-22). "Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook". Outsidethebeltway.com. http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/democrats_will_lose_the_house_charlie_cook/. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ "Nate Silver Sees Major Gains for GOP in 2010 - Washington Whispers". usnews.com. http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/08/13/nate-silver-sees-major-gains-for-gop-in-2010.html. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ Silver, Nate (2009-08-15). "Politics Done Right: Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios". FiveThirtyEight. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/likely-voters-and-unlikely-scenarios.html. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ Gelman, Andrew (2009-09-23). "Politics Done Right: Generic House Polling Suggests the Republicans Could Regain the House in 2010". FiveThirtyEight. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/generic-house-polling-suggests.html. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ Silver, Nate (2010-04-09). "Politics Done Right: Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats". FiveThirtyEight. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html. Retrieved on 2010-06-14.
- ↑ "The Cook Political Report - Charts - 2010 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. 2010-07-22. http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-07-22_13-41-18.php. Retrieved on 2010-07-22.
- ↑ Rothenberg, The (2010-07-22). "NEW 2010 House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/07/new-2010-house-ratings.html. Retrieved on 2010-07-22.
- ↑ "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house. Retrieved on 2010-07-03.
- ↑ [1], Template:As of
- ↑ [2], Template:As of
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